Showing posts with label presidential race. Show all posts
Showing posts with label presidential race. Show all posts

Friday, February 8, 2008

What's so hard about delegate counts?

I'm clearly missing something. I thought that after a state's primary was over, you could know how many delegates each candidate had won. For the Republicans, I believe this count no longer matters; with Romney's exit, McCain's the candidate. For the Democrats, however, the topic is still of great interest.

So why do all the sources I've checked disagree?

Here's a sample of the problem, with all numbers being total delegates:

BBC News: Clinton - 1,045 / Obama - 960
CNN: Clinton - 1,033 / Obama - 937
CNBC: Clinton - 855 / Obama - 861 (I have to believe this one omits the superdelegates)
ABC: Clinton - 1,069 / Obama - 990

Note the variety in the above:

* No two have the same count for either candidate.
* One has Obama winning; Clinton owns the rest
* The total number of committed delegates is never the same.

Fortunately, that last site had an article with this useful explanation:

"Superdelegates are under no obligation to publicly declare candidate support, which makes counting them an inexact science."

It also explained the following:

"In addition to the pledged delegates, 796 'superdelegates' get to act as free agents and can select whichever candidate they wish for the nomination."

So, if this site is right--and I suspect it is--all the totals we are seeing, except perhaps the ones from MSN, are merely estimates. With superdelegates composing about 39% of the votes a Democrat needs to reach the magic total, these free-agent voters are both vital and, as these sites' totals show, hard to pin down.

You gotta love a simple system.

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