UFC 104 pick recap: We sucked at the undercard

Last night's fights should have taught all readers of this blog a valuable lesson: don't ever use Kyle or my fight picks as the basis of any bets. While we did okay on the main card, we sucked on the preliminary fights.

Speaking of which, let's recap that undercard:

Yushin Okami vs. Chael Sonnen - We both chose Okami, and we were both wrong. Sonnen dominated the guy in route to a unanimous decision victory.

Pat Barry vs. Antoni Hardonk - We both chose Hardonk, and again we were both wrong. Barry won by TKO.

Jorge Rivera vs. Rob Kimmons - Kyle called this one, as Rivera won by TKO in the third. I incorrectly picked Kimmons.

Ryan Bader vs. Eric Schafer - We both correctly chose Bader to win this one, though he did it via decision.

Kyle Kingsberry vs. Razak Al-Hassan - We both thought Al-Hasan would win, and instead he lost a split decision. We did think it would be close, so we got that right.

Chase Gormley vs. Stefan Struve - Again, we agreed on our selection--Gormley to win--and we were wrong, as Struve submitted Gormley in the first.

So, at the end of the undercard, Kyle had gone 2-4, while I was a lowly 1-5.

In the all-important battle for victory in our three differences, Kyle is now ahead by 1.

Fortunately, in the main card I carried the day:

Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida - Johnson KO'd Yoshida a mere 41 seconds into the fight, justifying my faith in him--and handing Kyle a loss.

Joe Stevenson vs. Spencer Fisher - This one went pretty much as we expected, with Stevenson winning. Kyle was confident of a finish from the top, while I thought it would be that or a decision, and Stevenson did indeed pound his way to victory.

Josh Neer vs. Gleison Tibau - Tibau handed me the picking-the-fights victory over Kyle by winning a unanimous decision over Neer. Neer was always the more energetic, and by the end he had a lot more gas left than Tibau, but Tibau's take-downs carried the day for him.

Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell - We both chose Velasquez, who dominated the fight and ultimately won via TKO. I do think the referee stopped the fight early, because Rothwell had posted with his hand and was standing when the ref called the match, but I believe Velasquez would have won in time.

Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua - We both chose Machida to win, and he did, so we were right. That said, I think Shogun was robbed. From where I sat--and Joe Rogan sure agreed, as did many of the fans--Shogun won at least three of the rounds, maybe four. Shogun did more damage, was more aggressive, and fought an amazingly smart and patient fight. His game plan--punish Machida's legs and body--worked superbly, and at the end I expected him to win.

I considered this to be quite a weak card, but I came away having enjoyed the fights a great deal. Shogun showed how to beat Machida, and I expect every smart light heavyweight to be ramping up their leg-and-body-kick practice.

As for Kyle on the picking front, he'll have to improve his game as well--though mine was frankly nothing to brag about. The final tally for us both:

Mark: 6-5
Kyle: 5-6

I passed Kyle a draft of the above entry for his comment. He offered this short essay, which I think is insightful and accurate. Enjoy.

This card was a lesson in the limits of knowledge. I'd looked at the FightFinder records of all the fighters on the card. But two of my bad picks--Chase Gormley vs. Stefan Struve and Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida--I knew were wrong as soon as I saw the fighters in the ring. The winners in those fights were just bigger men, with eight inches or more of reach advantage over the losers.

I almost picked Ben Rothwell over Cain Velasquez, too, based on their records. But once I'd watched Rothwell's fight against Andrei Arlovski, I didn't think he'd have any answer for Velasquez's control on the ground. I changed my mind, but still thought it would be close.

Even fighters like Velasquez that I thought I knew well surprised me on this card. The fact is that fighters are always learning new skills; suffering new injuries; having good days or bad. We only get to see them fight for fifteen minutes at a time every four to six months. That's a really coarse instrument by which to measure their skills.

The careful and conditioned Mauricio Rua who fought Lyoto Machida to a stalemate last night wasn't the same man who gassed against Mark Coleman last year or the same man who overwhelmed Ricardo Arona with a whirlwind of attacks in Pride four years ago. The Shogun that we saw last night is a match for anyone at light heavyweight. Apparently the UFC's going to give him an immediate rematch against Machida. I expect that fight to look nothing like the fight we saw last night.

Cain Velasquez struggled against Cheick Kongo back in June. He tried to box more than he should have, and his transitions between striking and grappling looked awkward and telegraphed. But against Ben Rothwell, Velasquez used strikes to set up takedowns. He controlled Rothwell completely on the ground. His strikes were accurate and unceasing. Most people criticize the stoppage, but I don't have a problem with it. Rothwell wasn't going to win. He was just going to suffer more traumatic brain injury. Velasquez's performance was flawless, and he's ready to move up to face Antonio Nogueira, Frank Mir, or Junior Dos Santos.

Anthony Johnson also just gets better and better. I thought that he and Yoshida were on the same level. Johnson demolished Yoshida in forty seconds. Although Johnson lost to Rich Clementi in the UFC two years ago, he's progressed far enough that I'd expect him to win a rematch. Like Velasquez, he deserves a step up to fighting top-five competition. I'd love to see how he'd do against Josh Koscheck, who combines a similar mix of wrestling, striking skills and explosive athleticism.

After five years spent toiling away in smaller shows, Chael Sonnen has really stepped up his game over the last couple of years as he's made the transition from the WEC to the UFC. His performance last night was, in a way, more impressive than Johnson's 40-second knockout or Velasquez's wrestling domination. Sonnen also showed dominant wrestling. But he did it against a top-ten fighter with a strong wrestling base. He also outstruck Okami standing and outworked him throughout. Sonnen sustained the pace of a lightweight, always moving forward, always working, for a full fifteen minutes. He's ready for Nate Marquardt or Dan Henderson.

Tonight's UFC 104: Handicapping the fights

Once again, Kyle and I are going to try our hands at predicting the results of tonight's MMA bouts. I'll report tomorrow on how we did.

I'll take them in order from the top of the card to the bottom.

The main card fights:

Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua

Mark: Shogun is an emotional fighter who gained a significant number of his victories from soccer (and similar) kicks. Machida preys on emotion in his opponents, enticing them to make errors, and those kicks are illegal in the UFC. Though Shogun has a puncher's chance to catch Machida, it's a slim one due to the way Machida leans back. Shogun has a decent chance of surviving the first round and a tiny one of finishing the second, but I'll be stunned if he makes it out of the third.

Kyle: Shogun is a tailor-made opponent for Machida. His dubious record in the UFC is built on victories over 39-year-old Chuck Liddell and 44-year-old Mark Coleman. The last time Shogun beat somebody under 35 was February 2007. Shogun is an aggressive striker who constantly moves forward and counts on accurate combinations to keep his opponent too off-balance to respond. Machida is a precise counterpuncher who doesn't get off balance. I expect this one to look like Anderson Silva vs. Forrest Griffin, with Machida in the Anderson Silva role.

Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell

Mark: Unless Velasquez has improved mentally a great deal since the fight with Cheick Kongo, he's going to make some mistakes. That means Rothwell has a chance of tagging him--not a big chance, but a chance. If Rothwell doesn't, however, then Velasquez is going to take Rothwell down repeatedly, beat on him, and ultimate win via either TKO (my hope) or a decision (my fear). So, Velasquez it is.

Kyle: This fight is a lot less clear. Velasquez has fantastic wrestling skills and an undefeated record. Rothwell, despite being the same age, has been fighting professionally three times as long and faced stiffer competition. Rothwell's also got about thirty pounds on Velasquez. He'll try to keep the fight standing, use his weight, lean on Velasquez and wear him down. Velasquez will try to take Rothwell down and ground and pound his way to victory. I pick Velasquez to edge out the victory, but it could go either way.

Josh Neer vs. Gleison Tibau

Mark: Neer took the fight on short notice and has been training in the middle of nowhere with a camp of no particular renown, probably at least in part because of his scrapes with the police. With a good camp and adequate prep time, he would be my pick, but he had neither, so I'm going with Tibau instead. I expect Tibau either to submit Neer early or grind out a dull decision. This one, though, is close and hard to call.

Kyle: Neer has beaten Joe Stevenson and Melvin Guillard. Tibau has lost to Joe Stevenson and Melvin Guillard. So my money's on Neer... though since Neer is currently serving a seven-year suspended sentence for DUI and fleeing the police, I'd really be happier to see him lose. What do you have to do to actually get sent to jail these days?

Joe Stevenson vs. Spencer Fisher

Mark: I don't expect this fight to be exciting unless Stevenson gets a bad attack of the egos and the stupids. Assuming he sticks to the game plan Greg Jackson will have crafted for him, Stevenson should take down Fisher and grind out a decision, maybe even a ground-and-pound victory.

Kyle: Fisher's on a three-fight winning streak while Stevenson's been losing to top competition lately. But styles make fights and as long as Stevenson remembers that he's not a boxer I think he'll be able to take Fisher down at will. Look for Stevenson to finish from the top.

Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida

Mark: Johnson is bigger (especially after failing to make weight by six pounds), stronger, a better striker, and the proud owner of a huge reach advantage. Unless Yoshida can get him down and keep him down long enough to submit him, Yoshida is in for a very long night. The only factor that gives me pause is that Yoshida trained for two weeks with Greg Jackson, but it was only two weeks. Johnson by TKO or KO.

Kyle: This is another tough fight to call. Both fighters have fast hands and explosive power. Expect punches in bunches and whoever lands a clean strike first to walk out the winner. If forced to pick, I'll go with Yoshida.

And now, we venture into large stretches of terra incognita with our predictions for the preliminary bouts:

Yushin Okami vs. Chael Sonnen

Mark: Okami is the better fighter in just about every area and has fought tougher opponents than Sonnen. I like Sonnen, but he's over-matched here. Neither man is likely to finish, so this will be a long and quite possibly dull three rounds. When it finishes, though, Okami will emerge with the win, most likely via decision.

Kyle: Between them, Okami and Sonnen have had 27 fights go to decision, which is why this match between top-ten middleweights is on the undercard. Sonnen looked good in his WEC fight last year against an addled Paulo Filho, but Okami has been doing well against a higher level of competition in the UFC. Expect Okami to pull off a lay-and-pray victory.

Pat Barry vs. Antoni Hardonk

Mark: This fight should be short and exciting as two kick-boxers with minimal ground games pound on each other until one falls. I'm betting Barry will fall, and Hardonk will emerge the winner.

Kyle: Hardonk by TKO.

Jorge Rivera vs. Rob Kimmons

Mark: As an old guy, I like to root for the older guys in fights, but I can't believe in Rivera enough to do it this time. Expect Kimmons to take him down and submit him.

Kyle: Rivera because (a) he's done passably well against a higher level of competition in the UFC and (b) I like seeing guys my age getting by.

Ryan Bader vs. Eric Schafer

Mark: Unless someone feeds Bader a stupid pill right before fight-time, he'll take down Schafer immediately and then smother him. Schafer has a chance to submit Bader, because Bader is still young and inexperienced, but the more likely outcome--and the one I'm picking--is Bader winning. Whether Bader will win by holding down Schafer for three rounds or pounding him out is harder to call, but Bader should take it.

Kyle: Bader's a powerful wrestler. He'll take Schafer down and either pound the hell out of him or get triangle choked. I expect the former.

Kyle Kingsberry vs. Razak Al-Hassan

Mark: Unless the winner in this match pulls off the victory in strong style, we won't see him again in the UFC. The loser is definitely out of The Show. These guys are likely to beat on each other and so have an exciting match, but because the fight will go that way, it's hard to call. That said, Al-Hasan is my pick.

Kyle: Both fighters are coming off losses. The loser probably won't be seen in the UFC again for a while. I give Al-Hassan the slight edge.

Chase Gormley vs. Stefan Struve

Mark: Struve is huge, and he has a big reach advantage, but I still expect Gormley to close the distance, take Struve down, and pound out the win.

Kyle: Gormley. He's undefeated. He beat Eric Pele last year. And he's got fifty pounds on Stefan Struve. Gormley was originally supposed to be fighting Ben Rothwell on this card, so being pushed down into the prelims is a bit of a demotion for him.

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Kyle and I disagree on only three fights, so the margin of victory for either of us won't be big. Tune in Sunday to find out which of us will carry the prediction day.

UFC 102 predictions: how we did

In yesterday's entry, Kyle and I gave our best guesses about the outcomes of last evening's UFC PPV. Now, it's time to own up.

First, the numbers: I called six right and blew it on five, which is basically as good a result as tossing coins would yield. Kyle nailed only four and missed seven.

Thus, for the second straight round of predictions, I emerged the victor.

To give Kyle credit, he called the main event almost perfectly. Big Nog clearly won a decision, and Couture looked old and out of his depth.

We split on two other main-card events, with Kyle calling Vera correctly and me proving to be right to believe in Marquardt.

On the remaining two main bouts, we both messed up. We chose Jardine, but Thiago Silva had other ideas and knocked out the Dean of Mean in the first round. We also thought the UFC had finally found an opponent Chris Leben could beat, but it was not to be; Jake Rosholt submitted him. I'm hoping the UFC is as tired of Leben as I am.

So, once again, where I pulled ahead was on the undercard, where my minimal research was apparently better than Kyle's.

Though I'm not a professional financial advisor, I feel safe in offering the following advice: Don't make MMA bets using predictions from either Kyle or me.